Power Up: Senate GOP prioritizes SCOTUS over Trump’s relief gambit (so far)

But they’re moving apace with Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination, even after the apparent super-spreader event at the White House in which she was introduced is suspected to be the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak that infected Trump and at least 34 people in his orbit. 

• The Senate Judiciary Committee will kick off their confirmation hearings at 9 a.m. today, even though two of its members — Republicans Mike Lee (Utah) and Thom Tillis (N.C.) — also appear to have contracted the coronavirus at the White House event.

Republicans appear to believe Barrett’s nomination is a surefire win with their base, while a costly stimulus bill would sow divisions within the party over its enormous price tag. For a GOP-controlled Senate that has been unquestioningly deferential to Trump over the course of his presidency, resistance to passing a stimulus deal just weeks from Election Day is a notable break.

• “Many people think Trump is done and he will take many Republicans with him and I have yet to hear a reason how [more stimulus] would help anyone on the down ballot,” a GOP Senate aide told Power Up.

• On a weekend conference call with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Lee “said that the [stimulus] deal could complicate floor timing as the Senate tries to fill the Supreme Court vacancy this month, and hurt Republicans at the ballot box because the Supreme Court fight would no longer be front and center,” our colleagues Erica Werner, Jeff Stein, and Seung Min Kim reported on Saturday. 
• The opposition to the White House proposal was so striking on the call that Meadows told the group this of the message he’d have to relay to Trump: “You all will have to come to my funeral,” per Erica, Jeff, and Seung Min. 
• “Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, a Republican, warned that accepting a bill with Ms. Pelosi’s support would amount to a ‘death knell’ for the party’s ambitions to retain its majority in the Senate and would ‘deflate’ the Republican base, reflecting longstanding concerns among senators eager to protect their credentials as fiscal hawks and stave off primary challengers in the next election cycle,” the New York Times’s Emily Cochrane reports.

Democrats also dismissed the White House proposal: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said it took “one step forward, two steps back,” and provided insufficient funding for unemployment insurance, state and local aid and other Democratic priorities included in their own $2.2 trillion legislation. 

The Republican revolt prompted the White House to stake out a new approach yesterday: Mnuchin and Meadows asked “lawmakers to first pass legislation allowing the Trump administration to redirect about $130 billion in unused funding from the Paycheck Protection Program intended for small businesses while negotiations continue on a broader relief effort,” Jeff and Erica report. 

• It’s unlikely this targeted, stand-alone proposal has any legs in the House as Pelosi has repeatedly rejected a piecemeal approach to a relief bill.

Not a good time for this: Trump has pivoted, and counter-pivoted, on negotiations, first declaring he was done with a bill and then saying he wanted a bigger one than either party envisioned. The erratic negotiating stance may be a reflection of the president’s standing in the polls, where he continues to trail Joe Biden by double digits.

• Biden has a 12-point lead among likely voters, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll released over the weekend.
• “Biden holds a wide lead in states viewed as likely to vote Democrat, or that lean Democratic (‘blue’ or ‘lean blue’ states) in 2020. In these states, 60% of voters support Biden, while 35% favor Trump. Trump holds a narrow lead, 50% to 43%, in ‘red’ or ‘red-leaning’ states. Across nine states viewed as “battleground” states by election analysts — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden holds a narrow edge (50% vs. 45%),” a Pew survey reported.
• Tillis crossed the Rubicon this weekend: “The best check on a Biden presidency is for Republicans to have a majority in the Senate. And I do think ‘checks and balances’ does resonate with North Carolina voters,” he told Politico’s Burgess Everett, James Arkin and Marianne Levine in an interview. 

New numbers: A slim majority of voters believe the SCOTUS vacancy should be left to the winner of the presidential election, according to a new Post/ABC News poll out this morning, per our colleagues Scott Clement and Emily Guskin. 

• “The national poll finds 44 percent of registered voters say the U.S. Senate should hold hearings and vote on Barrett’s nomination, while 52 percent say filling this Supreme Court seat should be left to the winner of the presidential election and a Senate vote next year,” Scott and Emily report.
• But support for allowing the next president to choose who should fill the high court vacancy is down five points from last month.
• On abortion: “Voters hold more lopsided views on the court’s ruling in the 1973 landmark abortion case Roe v. Wade, with 62 percent saying the Supreme Court should uphold the decision that guarantees a woman’s right to abortion, while 24 percent say it should be overturned and a sizable 14 percent have no opinion,” according to the new numbers.

Support continues among voters of faith: “A 60 percent majority of Catholics and 62 percent of White Catholics say Roe should be upheld, while fewer than 3 in 10 of either group say it should be overturned. Support for upholding the ruling rises to 73 percent among White mainline Protestants and 75 percent of voters who do not affiliate with any religious group,” our colleagues write.

• Where anti-abortion sentiments are strongest: “Support for overturning the decision reaches a majority only among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters who identify as ‘very conservative’ (57 percent) or among White evangelical Protestant Republicans (51 percent). White evangelical Protestants overall — not just those who lean Republican — are split, with 44 percent saying Roe should be overturned and 41 percent saying it should be upheld.”

Get ready for it: A divided electorate will set the stage for the partisan fireworks expected to explode during a week of confirmation hearings kicking off today.

• In Barrett’s opening statement, first obtained by Seung Min, Barrett pledged to “apply the law as written” if she is confirmed. Republicans like Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) have tried to tamp down Trump’s “outcome-based” statements about Barrett’s nomination, and emphasize the idea that Barrett will not seek specific policy outcomes as a jurist.
• “The policy decisions and value judgments of government must be made by the political branches elected by and accountable to the People,” Barrett will say, per Seung Min. “The public should not expect courts to do so, and courts should not try.”

But Democrats plan to focus on health care as they argue Barrett’s confirmation could lead to the repeal of the Affordable Care Act when the Supreme Court hears a challenge to it the week after the election.

• “A Supreme Court nomination hearing touches on a panoply of legal and policy issues that may come before the nine justices. But this time around, Democratic senators will have a much tighter focus, each drilling Barrett with questions about the legality of the Affordable Care Act and telling stories of constituents who have benefited from President Barack Obama’s signature health-care law, according to Democratic aides who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the strategy,” reports Seung Min.
• “We are all agreed on two starting points: One is the importance of the Affordable Care Act,” Sen. Richard J. Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Democratic senator and member of the Judiciary Committee, said. “And secondly, the extraordinary effort to drop everything — covid-19 relief and any other consideration by Congress — to focus exclusively on filling this Supreme Court vacancy.”
• Durbin and Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) depicted Barrett as Trump’s vehicle for eliminating the ACA: “I am totally focused on what this nominee sitting there as a justice is going to do in striking down the” ACA, Hirono told CNN.
• Durbin called out four GOP members of the Judiciary Committee who are in tight reelection races — Sens. Tillis John Cornyn (Tex.), Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.), and Joni Ernst (Iowa) — and noted how many Americans in their states would lose their health insurance if Barrett votes to eliminate the ACA. “So you want to know the point we’re going to make? We’re making a point that this not only has an impact on the lives of so many innocent Americans, it could impact the members of this committee,” Durbin said on NBC’s “Meet the Press. “

JOINT CHIEFS HEAD SAYS MILITARY HAS ‘NO ROLE’ IN ELECTIONS: “We have established a very long 240-year tradition of an apolitical military that does not get involved in domestic politics,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told NPR’s Steve Inskeep, his first in-depth comments on how the armed forces would respond to a potential disputed election.

• The message is clear: “This isn’t the first time that someone has suggested that there might be a contested election,” Milley said. “And if there is, it’ll be handled appropriately by the courts and by the U.S. Congress. There’s no role for the U.S. military in determining the outcome of a U.S. election. Zero. There is no role there.”

BIDEN EXPANDS LEAD: “In the homestretch of the 2020 campaign, there has been little good news for the incumbent. And that is showing up as an ominous turn for him in the polls as Biden consolidates support,” Griff Witte, Pam Kelley and Christine Spolar report.

• More ominous signs for the president: “Four years ago, voters who decided in the presidential campaign’s waning days broke decisively for Trump, a political newcomer, delivering him a shock victory. This year, evidence suggests there are few who have yet to make up their minds. But many of those who had been on the fence appear to be coming down on Biden’s side.”

DEMS CONTINUE TO RAKE IN CASH IN SENATE RACES: “Jaime Harrison, the Democrat challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), raised an astonishing $57 million from July through September, the highest quarterly fund-raising total for any Senate candidate in U.S. history and part of a flood of Democratic money remaking the battle for control of the Senate,” the Times’s Maggie Astor, Shane Goldmacher and Trip Gabriel report.

• What this means: “Across the map, the Republican Party is mounting expensive defenses of seats it once thought were safe, stretching its resources to hold on to a Senate majority that it hopes will check [Biden’s power] if he wins in November.”

VIRUS CASES CONTINUE TO RISE IN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY: “Thirteen states, most of them in the West and Midwest, reported record-setting numbers of coronavirus infections over the past week,” Antonia Farzan and Jacqueline Dupree report.

• More details: “The 7-day rolling average for new cases — considered a more accurate metric than the number of new cases reported each day — reached new highs in Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota and Wisconsin during the week that ended on Sunday, according to data tracked by The Washington Post. Some of the largest jumps occurred in Montana, where the 7-day rolling average for new cases was up 61 percent from the previous week, New Mexico (54 percent) and South Dakota (44 percent.)”

Officials fear politicization of science: “The White House has repeatedly meddled with decisions by career professionals at the FDA, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other science-based agencies. Many of the nation’s leading scientists, including some of the top doctors in the administration, are deeply disturbed by the collision of politics and science and bemoan its effects on public health,” Joel Achenbach and Laurie McGinley report.

• Key quote: “I’ve never seen anything that closely resembles this. It’s like a pressure cooker,” Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told our colleagues.

Health experts are not certain Trump is not contagious: “Trump tweeted on Sunday that he is ‘immune’ to the coronavirus and ‘can’t give it,’ even though the White House has not released any negative test results and immunity to the virus remains poorly understood,” Karin Brulliard and Felicia Sonmez report. Trump is expected to return to the trail later today with a rally in Florida.

• On the ground: “On Friday, the state’s COVID-19 death toll surpassed the 15,000 mark. The number of total daily infections topped 5,500 on Sunday. And first-time filings for unemployment assistance in the state rose last week, with 40,000 new jobless claims after Disney World, Universal Orlando and Baggage Airline Guest Services announced thousands of layoffs,” reports the Palm Beach Post.

Fauci says Trump ad takes his comments out of context: “The 30-second ad, which is airing in Michigan, touts Trump’s personal experience with the virus and uses a quote from Fauci in an attempt to make it appear as if he is praising Trump’s response,” CNN’s Kaitlan Collins reports.

• The Trump campaign defends the ad, but Facui made his feelings clear: “In my nearly five decades of public service, I have never publicly endorsed any political candidate. The comments attributed to me without my permission in the GOP campaign ad were taken out of context from a broad statement I made months ago about the efforts of federal public health officials,” Fauci said in a statement provided to CNN.
• The Fact Checker’s ruling: “This is yet another misleading clip job by the Trump campaign. Fauci’s words are placed in the ad in a deliberate effort to mislead viewers, and he had every right to complain,” Glenn Kessler writes.

When a covid spreads on your campus: “It was a moment that exemplified a fall of extreme uncertainty, which unspooled against a backdrop of fierce national debate over in-person instruction. On U-Va.’ s campus, known as the ‘Grounds,’ students struggled with questions both monumental and mundane: Where can I study? How do I make friends? What if my roommate gets me sick? What’s the big deal? Why are we here?” Paulina Firozi, Hannah Knowles, Reis Thebault report in their oral history of the University of Virginia’s ongoing outbreak.

WHAT ELSE YOU NEED TO KNOW:

Hurricane Delta’s toll is just emerging: “As floodwaters from Hurricane Delta receded from this city, the largest in southwestern Louisiana to be severely hit by two hurricanes in six weeks, residents and city officials were still surveying the damage of compounding crises — and wondering how much federal help they can count on,” Dan Lamothe, Meryl Kornfield and Hannah Knowles report from Lake Charles, La.

Guest at Trump’s properties paid millions and sought access to power: “Campaigning for president as a Washington outsider, Trump electrified rallies with his vows to ‘drain the swamp.’ But Trump did not merely fail to end Washington’s insider culture of lobbying and favor-seeking,” the Times’s Nicholas Confessore, Karen Yourish, Steve Eder, Ben Protess, Maggie Haberman, Grace Ashford, Michael LaForgia, Kenneth P. Vogel, Michael Rothfeld and Larry Buchanan report in a detailed investigation aided by the paper’s blockbuster reporting on Trump’s tax records.

• Ouch: “He reinvented it, turning his own hotels and resorts into the Beltway’s new back rooms, where public and private business mix and special interests reign … Once Trump was in the White House, his family business discovered a lucrative new revenue stream: people who wanted something from the president. An investigation by the Times found over 200 companies, special-interest groups and foreign governments that patronized Trump’s properties while reaping benefits from him and his administration. Nearly a quarter of those patrons have not been previously reported.”

Much of America has stopped celebrating Columbus Day, but the explorer remains revered in Italy: “As Americans feud over whether Columbus Day should remain a federal holiday — or whether the man who first charted the transatlantic route in 1492 should be remembered as a colonial oppressor — in Italy, Columbus is still held in high esteem. Italians tend to think of him as the sum of their best qualities: ingenuity, courage and resilience,” Stefano Pitrelli reports from Rome.

POPPING CHAMPAGNE IN THE BUBBLE: “As Anthony Davis threw down a fierce dunk to push the Los Angeles Lakers’ second-quarter lead to 20 points, LeBron James stood behind him and rotated his index fingers in a circle. Faster. More. The Miami Heat is reeling. Don’t let up … That second-quarter push turned what had been a tense NBA Finals into a blowout coronation,” Ben Golliver and Kareem Copeland report from Kissimmee, Fla.

This is the Lakers 17th title as a franchise: “James secured the fourth title of his illustrious career, leading a third different team to the crown after previously winning with the Heat in 2012 and 2013 and the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2016.”