Power Up: Republicans increasingly worried about Trump’s reelection after a wild week in Washington

ON THE SCHEDULE: “President Trump is scheduled to make his first on-camera interview appearance today since he announced last week that he tested positive for the novel coronavirus,” per Fox News’s David Aaro. “The interview will take place on ‘Tucker Carlson Tonight’ at 8 p.m. ET. Dr. Marc Siegel will conduct a medical evaluation and interview during the program.” 

WILD, WILD WHITE HOUSE: Vice President Pence declared to voters at this week’s debate that he thinks Trump will win this election. But many Republicans are privately – and some publicly – say they’re less sure of that. 

The president’s unpredictable behavior has long been a feature of the Trump presidency, but eight GOP sources — from Capitol Hill to the Trump campaign to the White House — tell Power Up this week has spooked them and they are now bracing for the electoral worst. A handful of them say they are already scrambling to line up new jobs; some say they know their peers are starting the search. While several acknowledge there’s still another 25 days for the race to tighten, they’re worried about this being the final message as polls after Trump’s debate performance and diagnosis show Biden’s lead widening and the Democrat’s team shatters fundraising records. 

• “Everyone is holding out for some shock surprise because of 2016. But people who think 2020 is 2016 are fooling themselves,” one GOP Senate aide told us.
• “Everything is fine. Just fine. Totally fine,” a Trump campaign source said sarcastically.
• “It’s exhausting,” a White House source said, using expletives to describe the state of affairs as the outbreak ensnares Trump and at least 34 White House staff members and other contacts.
• “I think [Trump] is trying to take everyone down with him,” a former administration official told us. “He’s just too exhausting to follow.”
• “I think it’s just Hail Mary after Hail Mary — just seeing what sticks,” the GOP Senate aide added of Trump’s behavior over the course of the week.

New numbers are in: “Biden holds a wide lead in states viewed as likely to vote Democrat, or that lean Democratic (‘blue’ or ‘lean blue’ states) in 2020,” according to a new Pew Research survey conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 5, based on interviews with 10,543 interviews with registered voters. It shows Biden with a wide lead on his ability to handle the health impact of the coronavirus outbreak and bring the country closer together. Overall, Biden maintains a 10-point lead over Trump. 

• “In these states, 60% of voters support Biden, while 35% favor Trump. Trump holds a narrow lead, 50% to 43%, in ‘red’ or ‘red-leaning’ states. Across nine states viewed as ‘battleground’ states by election analysts — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — Biden holds a narrow edge (50% vs. 45%).”

POLITICALLY DISTANCED: Vulnerable Republicans up for reelection have already started to publicly distance themselves from Trump and his handling of the pandemic and the stimulus negotiations. “Facing a political reckoning as Trump’s support plummets and a possible blue tsunami looms, it is now conservatives and Trump allies who are showing flashes of discomfort with the president, straining to stay in the good graces of his core voters without being wholly defined by an erratic incumbent,” Bob Costa reported this week. 

• “The situation is getting worse and worse,” a senior GOP official close to Trump told Bob. “This is like ‘Access Hollywood’ because we’re all seeing terrible poll numbers. We didn’t think it’d be this bad at this point. Everyone is wondering where the bottom is, and they’re figuring out what they need to do.”
• Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) told Fox News’s Sean Hannity earlier this week that he’s “worried about the election,” before sharing two radically different predictions: “I think we either win the presidency and win the Senate, or we lose the presidency and lose the Senate.” 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is running for reelection, obliquely criticized the administration about its lax coronavirus precautions at an event in Kentucky: “McConnell, a 78-year-old polio survivor, contrasted the precautions he has taken personally in the Senate to the White House,” our colleague Felicia Sonmez reports.

• ‘Paying the price’: “I haven’t actually been to the White House since August the 6th, because my impression was their approach to how to handle this was different from mine and what I insisted that we do in the Senate, which is to wear a mask and practice social distancing.” McConnell insisted he’s encouraged Americans to wear masks and practice social distancing since early May. “Now, you’ve heard of other places that have had a different view, and they are, you know, paying the price for it.” 
• And after Trump called off stimulus negotiations until after the election, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) tweeted to the president urging him to “look at the House Problem-Solvers bipartisan $1.5 trillion stimulus relief package.” Graham’s race against former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison was changed to a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report on Wednesday.

MESSAGE OVERLOAD: The president’s controversial remarks the morning after the vice presidential debate made headlines that overshadowed some of the positive coverage Pence gleaned from his debate performance. 

During an hour-long interview with Fox News host Maria Bartiromo on Thursday, Trump announced wouldn’t participate in a virtual debate with Biden, called Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) “a monster” and suggested he contracted the coronavirus from families of fallen service members at a White House event (forcing the White House to clarify that Trump was not trying to blame anyone). And he lashed out at some of his most loyal allies. 

• “Trump hijacked the debate news with an interview that included targeting arguably his two most loyal Cabinet members — Attorney General William P. Barr and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — along with FBI Director Christopher A. Wray,” our colleague Aaron Blake writes. “Trump built upon tweets this week suggesting Barr needs to start indicting people tied to the Russia investigation, while explicitly citing President Barack Obama and Biden.”
• “The president’s comments came during an interview that, even for him, was a scattershot and manic performance, one that advisers said reflected increasing frustration over his political fortunes just 26 days before an election that surveys show him losing by double digits. In focusing his ire on his own team, he seemed to indicate that he saw October prosecutions as his best chance to rebound,” the New York Times’s Maggie Haberman and Peter Baker report.

TURNING IT AROUND?: The president made an appeal to seniors yesterday – calling them “my favorite people in the world” – expressing compassion during the pandemic and promising to make treatments easily available. “I want you to get the same care that I got,” Trump said in the video message released on Twitter. “You’re going to get the same medicine — you’re going to get it free, no charge.” 

• He sought to make a personal connection: “We’re taking care of our seniors,” the president said. “You’re not vulnerable, but they like to say ‘the vulnerable,’ but you’re the least vulnerable. But for this one thing you are vulnerable, and so am I.”

Not hard to see the connection: Trump’s numbers with seniors who have been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic are lagging: “Biden has gained a more than 20 point lead over President Trump among voters ages 65 and older, two separate polls — one from CNN and one from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal — found,” per Axios’s Ursula Perano. 

• And Trump trails far behind Biden on some important personal attributes, including compassion: “The [Pew] survey finds that voters view Biden much more positively than Trump for compassion, honesty and being a good role model. Nearly twice as many voters say ‘compassionate” describes Biden very or fairly well than say it applies to Trump (67% vs. 34%). More than half of voters (53%) say Biden is honest, compared with 35% who describe Trump as honest. And far more voters say Biden is a good role model (54% vs. 28%).”

Trump’s message earlier this week has not been popular with coronavirus survivors – or those who lost family members: “In interviews, Americans whose lives have been upended by the virus said they felt disappointed that the president missed an opportunity to model responsible behavior,” our colleague Griff Witte reports. “They expressed anger that Trump has continued to minimize the virus’s threat after receiving deluxe care that the vast majority of people can only dream of at a time when testing and treatments are running low. And they voiced fear that Trump’s words and actions would lead to more reckless behavior among his supporters.” 

• It also sparked some cautious criticism from Republicans: “I think the biggest mistake people make in public life is not telling the truth, particularly in something with as much public interest as here because you know the real story is going to come out,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) who is in a tight race, said in an interview with the Houston Chronicle’s editorial board about Trump’s playing down the coronavirus threat. 

NOT JUST SENIORS: “Just as was the case four years ago, there is a sizable gender gap in candidate preference: Women voters continue to favor the Democratic candidate for president by 17 percentage points (55% to 39%). This is roughly on par with 2016,” according to the Pew survey.

• And the pandemic polling gap is big: “With less than a month to go before the election, a majority of registered voters (57%) say they are very or somewhat confident in Biden to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus, while 40% express a similar level of confidence in Trump. In June, Biden held a narrower, 11 percentage point lead on handling the coronavirus outbreak (52% Biden, 41% Trump).”
• Noteworthy: “The [Pew] survey was in the field when Trump announced on Twitter, early on the morning of Oct. 2, that he and first lady Melania Trump had contracted COVID-19. There are no significant differences in voter preferences, or in confidence in the two candidates to handle the impact of the coronavirus, before and after his announcement.”
• The economy remains the president’s strong suit – but not by much: Trump leads Biden by one point on voter confidence in his ability to made good decisions about economic policy. Coronavirus is likely to remain a significant factor as White House coronavirus response coordinator, Deboarh Birx, warned yesterday of “troubling” signs that coronavirus hotspots are reemerging in the Northeast. 

RACE TO THE FINISH: The president is hurtling ahead with his schedule, despite his diagnosis. “White House physician, Sean Conley predicted that the president will be able to resume ‘public engagements’ by Saturday, the 10th day since Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis,” our colleague Colby Itkowitz reports.

• “Conley said in a memo released by the White House that the president’s condition has been stable since leaving the hospital, that he has completed his prescribed treatment without any problems and that there are no signs that he will get worse.”
• Trump told Hannity he would “probably” get tested again on Friday, but did not say when his last test took place. Conley’s statement makes no mention of whether Trump tested negative. 

MIXED MESSAGES: “The White House sent mixed signals Thursday about the direction of renewed stimulus talks, resulting in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confronting Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin over who speaks for the president,” Erica Werner and Jeff Stein report. 

• “The developments occurred two days after [Trump] ordered Mnuchin to stop negotiating with Pelosi, only to announce Thursday that talks were back on. Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Democrats were still ready to deal.”
• “According to Pelosi’s spokesman, Mnuchin and Pelosi spoke by phone Thursday afternoon to discuss prospects for a comprehensive economic relief bill when White House communications director Alyssa Farah told reporters at the White House that the administration does not support legislation of that kind.”
• “’We’ve made very clear we want a skinny package’ consisting of stimulus checks, an airline bailout and small-business relief, “but not part of a larger package,’ Farah said in comments distributed in a White House pool report… The exchange clouded prospects for a deal of any kind, comprehensive or otherwise, less than four weeks before the November elections.”

DEBATES IN DISARRAY: “A miffed Trump pulled out of next week’s second presidential debate after organizers said it would be held virtually ‘to protect the health and safety of all involved’ given his coronavirus diagnosis — only to have his campaign demand hours later that the event go on as originally planned,” Chelsea Janes and Josh Dawsey report.

• Where things stand: Biden’s campaign has already scheduled a replacement event, a town hall on ABC. Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr., the head of the debate organizing commission.
• After a day of conflicting messages, Trump’s campaign manager Bill Stepien demanded the debate return to its original format, “citing a new report by [doctor Conley] that anticipated Trump would be cleared for public events as of this weekend,” per our colleagues.
• “But Frank J. Fahrenkopf Jr., the head of the debate organizing commission, said Trump’s initial decision to withdraw might have made the demand moot. Fahrenkopf said he had spoken to Biden campaign officials and they appeared committed to their replacement event.”
• We’ll see: Fahrenkopf  said the Oct. 15 debate “would only occur if both Biden’s team and the Cleveland Clinic, which is handling safety protocols for the debates, signed off on it,” our colleagues write. 
• Fahrenkopf also rejected the Trump camp’s proposal to add a debate after the final one. “Nashville on the 22nd is the last debate,” he said.

It has been difficult to keep up with Trump and his campaign’s constantly changing demands:

Both parties are making preparations for a contested election: “Many legal and voting rights experts who have been studying the arcane rules that would govern a contested election say they are less worried about Trump refusing to concede if he loses decisively than they are about a complicated delay over disputed ballots,” Amy Gardner, Rachael Bade and Elise Viebeck report.

• Still, Pelosi is preparing if the race gets thrown to the House in the unlikely event neither candidate attains 270 electoral votes: “She has also directed some of her members to be ready if GOP legislatures in states with narrow margins or unfinished counts seek to appoint their own electors, a situation Democrats hope to head off with an obscure law from the 19th century that allows Congress to intervene.”

Biden, Harris won’t say if they would expand the Supreme Court: “You will know my opinion on court-packing when the election is over,” Biden told reporters in Arizona, Amy B Wang reports. 

• More details: “The idea of adding additional justices to the Supreme Court has been floated for years, and it is not without historical precedent,” our colleague writes. The topic has received renewed attention as Senate Republicans try to confirm Judge Amy Barrett to the high court before the election.

Longtime GOP fundraiser Elliott Broidy charged with acting as a foreign agent: “Prosecutors unsealed the 31-page information against Broidy, outlining how they believe he took millions in undisclosed money to end a U.S. investigation into a billion-dollar embezzlement of a Malaysian state investment fund and, separately, to return outspoken Chinese exile Guo Wengui to his home country,” Matt Zapotosky reports.

Yes, Virginia, he is tweeting about you again: “As Trump dwells on the commonwealth, his campaign has been dark on broadcast TV in Virginia — even in the home stretch, as Biden went on the air here this week for the first time in the campaign, the start of a $1.5 million ad buy that Trump’s campaign has shown no intention of matching,” Laura Vozzella reports from Richmond about the president’s frequent efforts to flip Virginia.

TRUMP DOLES OUT AID TO SAVE HIS CAMPAIGN: “In recent weeks, the president has with increasing urgency sought to unlock federal spending to shore up key voting blocs ahead of the 2020 presidential election,” Jeff Stein reports this morning.

But it’s not clear any of this will work: For example, “Trump’s pledge last month to send American seniors $200 coupons to offset their prescription drug costs has resulted in no concrete action or additional benefit for seniors as of Thursday, according to Larry Levitt, a health-care expert at the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit,” our colleague writes.

• And some of the targets of the support say it’s far too late: “It’s a joke. A joke. It’s a whole joke,” Randy Messelt, a Wisconsin farmer, told our colleagues of the president’s federal farm aid programs, looking up at an empty 150-foot barn that once housed 53 cattle.

THE OUTBREAK: “A week after a cluster of coronavirus cases emerged following a White House event, the Trump administration is now working on a limited basis with the federal government’s elite cadre of disease detectives to control further spread,” Lena H. Sun, Yasmeen Abutaleb and Josh Dawsey report.

Trump and at least 34 staffers and close contacts have tested positive, per an internal government report: “The White House by Tuesday completed contact tracing related to the president’s infection and cases involving several other people, a senior White House official said, raising concerns among infectious-disease experts about whether a thorough investigation could be completed so quickly,” our colleagues write.

• What they’re saying: “Several White House staffers and administration officials expressed anger and bewilderment that the White House had not undertaken a more robust contact-tracing effort sooner. They said many people — including White House residence staff who do not have the stature of a lawmaker or a top political aide — had not been contacted despite possible exposures, putting them and others at risk in a still-growing outbreak.”

How the “people’s house” became a pandemic hot spot: “Guests of the president and his campaign returned to at least 20 states, often by plane. They visited college campuses and sat across the dinner table from elderly parents. They attended church and addressed crowds at indoor conventions, including on the topic of election security,” Isaac Stanley-Becker, Rosalind S. Helderman, Josh Dawsey and Amy Gardner report.

FBI THWARTS KIDNAPPING PLOT ON MICHIGAN GOV.: “Officials said the conspiracy — which was supposed to come to fruition before the election — seemed to be an ominous indication of how America’s civil unrest has energized violent extremists,” Matt Zapotosky, Devlin Barrett and Abigail Hauslohner report of the state and federal charges brought against 13 people who they say were involved in various plans to attack law enforcement, overthrow the government and ignite a civil war.

The plot was foreshadowed on social media: “In June, one of the suspects in the plot took to the relative privacy of a Facebook group to make clear his brewing hatred. Adam Fox called Whitmer a ‘tyrant bitch,’ according to an FBI affidavit, and declared, ‘I don’t know boys, we gotta do something … give me some ideas of what we can do,’” Craig Timberg and Isaac Stanley-Becker report.

• “Fox and other suspects in the plot to kidnap Whitmer (D) left a trail on social media that, viewed with the hindsight of Thursday’s announcement of their arrests, looks both troubling and troublingly familiar — a line of rage that flows from online memes to real-world violence that at times has become deadly.”

Whitmer lit into Trump and tied his remarks to the plot: “When our leaders speak, their words matter. They carry weight,” she said, pointing out that the president told the far-right Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by” during the presidential debate.

• Trump slammed the governor on Twitter saying she was inefficiently appreciative of the work of “My Justice Department and Federal Law Enforcement.”

WHAT ELSE YOU NEED TO KNOW:

How systemic racism shaped George Floyd’s life and hobbled his ambition: “While Floyd’s life span coincided with many advancements for Black Americans — some of them dramatic — his personal path highlights just how much those hard-fought gains remain out of reach for millions like him,” Toluse Olorunnipa and Griff Witte report in the first installment of a new series of stories called “George Floyd’s America.”

• “My mom, she used to always tell us that growing up in America, you already have two strikes,” as a Black man, Floyd’s younger brother Philonise told our colleagues. “And you’re going to have to work three times as hard as everybody else, if you want to make it in this world.”

Louisiana prepares for Hurricane Delta: “It has been just six weeks since Hurricane Laura crashed into the United States near here, tied as the strongest Category 4 hurricane ever to make landfall in Louisiana, and less than a month since Hurricane Sally was the first since 2004 to make landfall in Alabama,” Dan Lamothe, Ashley Cusick and Matthew Cappucci report from Lake Charles, La.