Donald Trump is moving to formally exit the Paris climate agreement, making the United States the only country in the world that will not participate in the pact, as global temperatures are set to rise 3C and worsening extreme weather will drive millions into poverty.
The paperwork sent by the US government to withdraw begins a one-year process for exiting the deal. The Trump administration will not be able to finalize its exit until a day after the presidential election in November 2020.
The secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, announced the development on Monday afternoon, saying the agreement would be an “unfair economic burden imposed on American workers, businesses, and taxpayers” and that the US has already reduced its heat-trapping emissions.
But organizers of local city and state efforts to curb the crisis across America say the US is still trying to play a role in fighting the climate crisis, despite the actions of the federal government.
Carl Pope, vice chair of the group America’s Pledge, said its members – who are vowing to keep fighting the climate emergency – produce more than half the country’s heat-trapping emissions and represent about 70% of the US gross domestic product. Another organization, the US Climate Alliance, includes the governors of 25 states, representing 55% of the US population.
In the Paris agreement, the US agreed to cut its heat-trapping pollution at least 26% below 2005 levels by 2025.
Dozens of countries are also pursuing goals to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. But they represent only about 11% of the world’s climate footprint and exclude the biggest emitters: China, the US and India.
Staying on par with those more advanced countries would require the US government to eliminate pollution from coal and natural gas powered electricity plants, transportation, manufacturing facilities and agriculture. To meet those aims, local action by itself is not likely to be enough.
“We don’t think it’s likely just with the states we have, we think we need the whole country to be moving together,” Pope said. “The bad news is, it’s reasonably clear that we need some time pretty soon to get a federal government that can help.”
Jean Su, energy director with the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute, said: “America is the number one historical contributor to the climate emergency wreaking havoc in burning California, the flooded Southeast and the rest of the world.”
“The next president must repay this extraordinary climate debt by rapidly moving America to 100% clean energy and financing the decarbonization of the Global South,” Su said, referring to low and middle income countries located in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, also known as the developing world.
In addition, the Trump administration has also pulled US funding commitments to help the developing world cut pollution.
Nathaniel Keohane, senior vice-president of climate for the Environmental Defense Fund, said Trump is “sacrificing a stable future for our children to serve his narrow political interests”.
Trumphas alternately ignored or denied the climate crisis. His agencies are nixing requirements for power plants and cars, and bolstering fossil fuels whenever possible. He promised to exit the Paris agreement during his campaign, calling it a bad deal for the US economy.
The Democratic frontrunners challenging Trump have all said they would set the country on a path to neutralize its climate pollution by 2050.
Nate Hultman, director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability and lead author of this year’s America’s Pledge report, pointed to laws enacted in 2019 in New Mexico, Nevada, Washington, Maine, New York, Washington DC, and Puerto Rico for 100% clean energy targets. Hawaii and California already had such laws.
Together, they represent 16% of the nation’s electricity, more than doubling the share from a year ago, he said.
“Another way to think about it is that Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement is supported in reality by only about 30% of the economy and 35% of the population,” Hultman said.
Even once the US withdraws, the country will be able to participate as an observer in international climate negotiations.
But despite the efforts of subnational governments, recent analysis shows the US is still far off track from its commitments, regardless of whether Trump pulls out of the Paris agreement. In the most optimistic scenario, the US could reach only 19% below 2005 levels by 2025, according to the economic research firm Rhodium Group, which considers only federal and state policies that are adopted and enforceable.
The US is also far from neutralizing climate emissions by the middle of the century, which many experts say will be necessary for all countries in order to avert the worst of the crisis.
“We can still get there with a serious shift in policy in the coming years,” said Kate Larsen, director of Rhodium’s international energy and climate research.
Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the US withdrawal won’t change the dynamics of international negotiations because other countries have known it was coming.
“Where the jury is out is the effect it will have on the willingness of other countries to increase the ambition of their current Paris pledges, as everyone acknowledges is essential if you’re going to have any chances of meeting the Paris temperature limitations goals,” Meyer said.
