2024 US Election Betting Odds: Biden Trails Trump, DeSantis

With the midterms less than a month away, the U.S. presidential election odds board has seen massive movement with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis now just behind former president Donald Trump. 

Meanwhile, incumbent president Joe Biden has dropped to third place at +500, as low approval ratings continue to hamper his presidency. Biden has, however, seen his approval numbers jump slightly in recent days in the wake of his student-loan forgiveness announcement. Nevertheless, his odds of being re-elected have not similarly improved. 

With the next election still two years away, there are plenty of candidates to consider, so let’s look at the election 2024 odds and see who has the best betting odds of becoming the next president of the United States.

Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on October 23, 2022.

2024 US election win probability over time

Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election

Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.

Those odds have shifted massively, and Trump is now alone at the top of the board as 2024 U.S. presidential election favorite at +300 (implied probability = 25.00%) with DeSantis trailing slightly behind him. Biden has now dropped to third place at +500 (16.69%), which is shorter than it was a month ago, while Harris has plummeted all the way to fourth place at +1,200 (7.69%).

Other presidential betting favorites for 2024 include governor of California Gavin Newsom (+1,400, 6.67%) Trump’s VP Mike Pence (+1,800, 5.26%), Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (+2,500, 3.85%), and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (+2,800, 3.45%).

Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Trump had been installed at +250 and moved to +300 after the FBI’s search warrant at his Florida home was issued.

Although the former POTUS has yet to formally announce he will campaign in 2024, he recently told New York Magazine that he has already made up his mind and that his “big decision” is whether to go before or after the midterms. Trump has been speaking at multiple rallies across the Midwest and South while amassing $124 million in fundraising money.

According to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released at the end of January, Trump would dominate a hypothetical eight-person presidential primary. According to the poll, 57% of Republicans would support Trump for another White House bid, miles ahead of DeSantis (12%) and Pence (11%). 

That said, there is a growing concern that while Trump might be a shoo-in to win the Republican primary, he would have a tougher time winning the general election than other, less-polarizing candidates.

Ron DeSantis’ odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

The biggest riser on the presidential election odds board is DeSantis, who was +6,600 (1.49%) a year ago, +550 (15.38%) at the start of July, and is now at +330 (25.00%). The 43-year-old remains coy about whether he will run for President but has become a Republican firebrand figure for his laissez-faire policies during the COVID-19 pandemic and his enactment of the Stop WOKE Act.

In the annual Western Conservative Summit’s straw poll taken in June, 71% of participants said they wanted DeSantis to run for president in 2024, compared to 67% for Trump.

While in the past, Trump has suggested that DeSantis would be unlikely to run against him, things may have changed. DeSantis has now amassed more than $100 million in his fundraising coffers and has declined to ask Trump for a reelection endorsement in Florida.

With Trump having a history of handing out endorsements based on loyalty, DeSantis refusing to kiss the ring could be a sign that he’s seriously considering running against him. 

Joe Biden’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

President Biden’s approval rating has jumped a bit from its lowest point, hitting 42.3%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Biden’s latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him just a 17.86% chance of being re-elected in 2024.

Despite healthy growth in the US job market and relatively low levels of unemployment, the Biden regime continues to face plenty of obstacles. Chief among them are surging inflation, high fuel prices, and global supply chains still hindered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

He’s also dealing with criticism from his Democrat base, who feel like the party is losing key ground on issues like gun reform and abortion. With criticism from all sides, Biden might not even be the party nominee if the Democrats take a beating during the midterms. 

Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Harris has seen her odds tumble, but she remains the Democrat favorite if Biden decides not to run again. The Smarkets exchange gives her a 14.29% chance of becoming the party nominee, lower than Biden’s 34.72% but higher than third-place Newson, who sits at 11.6%.

Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and is struggling to break ground with her two biggest projects, border migration, and national voting reform. In November, her approval rating sank to a comically low 28%, the lowest of any VP in modern memory — a list that includes Dick Cheney.

Harris was previously on the U.S. Senate and has also served as the Attorney General of California. At age 57, Harris entered her political prime and ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 before dropping out to endorse Biden.

Gavin Newsom’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

While Biden remains the Democrat favorite according to oddsmakers, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that 64% of Democratic voters want somebody other than Biden to represent them in the 2024 election. 

While a sitting president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to lose in the general election.

At 79, Biden is already the oldest president in history. If he steps down due to his age and declining popularity, younger challengers (and better communicators) like Gavin Newsom or Pete Buttigieg will emerge. 

Newsom served as the mayor of San Francisco from 2004 to 2011 and has been the governor of California since 2019. He has surged up the board from +6,000 (1.64%) earlier this year and is now up to +1,400 (6.67%). 

If the Democratic party decides to move on from candidates that were born before Willie Mays was a rookie (Biden, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were all born in the 1940s), Newsom or Buttigieg could be excellent value plays.

AOC’s odds of winning the 2024 US Presidential Election

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as one of the brightest young stars of the Democratic Party but has seen her odds fall from +3,300 (2.94%) in the New Year to +5,000 (1.94%) in March, and she has now plummeted all the way to +6,500 (1.52%). AOC currently serves as a U.S. House of Representatives member, representing New York’s 14th district.

The politically savvy 32-year-old has built a massive online following and will be turning the requisite age of presidential eligibility just before the 2024 election.

Her biggest obstacle may in fact be her own party, with her more progressive views likely to alienate some of her colleagues unless they soften over time.

She recently hit the news for criticizing the Biden administration for not doing more to help student debt. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi’s new book “This Will Not Pass” accuses Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives of vying to be “queen bee.” AOC could run the risk of being another Bernie Sanders if she can’t convince the moderates that she’s willing to make concessions on key issues.

The Rock’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

What would election betting odds be without some celebrity long-shots? For one, Kanye West emerged as a massive underdog candidate in the last election. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is also currently sitting at a relatively high +4,000 (2.44%), tied with former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

The former WWE champion and current action movie star has shown interest in politics and even stated in a Vanity Fair interview that he has done research into what that could entail.

However, he’s also been very frank about his lack of experience in politics saying, “You know, at the end of the day, I don’t know the first thing about politics…I don’t know the first thing about policy.”

More recently, Johnson has explicitly ruled out the prospect of running for president, saying “it’s off the table.”

2022 US midterm election betting odds

Action on the 2022 midterms is heating up as Americans head to the polls this November. The Republican party is favored to take the house and take more than 50 seats in the Senate. Be sure to check out our full 2022 U.S. election midterms article here.

Odds to win the U.S. House of Representatives

Odds courtesy of William Hill on October 11, 2022.

Only three US Presidents have received 60% or more of the popular vote since the metric was recorded. They include Warren G. Harding in 1920 (60.3), Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (60.2), and Richard Nixon in 1972 (60.7).

Betting on the election in the United States

No U.S. states allow for election betting, so legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. However, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. Legal betting sites in Ontario are permitted to offer election odds, while bettors in other provinces can also place bets via Canadian betting sites. 

US election betting odds FAQs

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