Consumer sentiment dims after budget and jump in CPI
Peter Hannam
Ahead of the RBA’s expected seventh consecutive monthly rate rise later today, there’s more news of weaker consumer confidence.
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan survey found sentiment sinking another 1.5%. Confidence among those paying off a mortgage was down 15.6% over the past six weeks, said David Plank, ANZ’s head of Australian economics.
Denting demand is what the RBA, of course, is trying to do. Still, the survey has found those who think they are financially worse compared with a year ago has now risen to 47%, or the highest in three decades of the survey.
One reason for the sagging confidence, though, is the jump in the CPI for the September quarter, where the annual rate hit the highest in 32 years at 7.3%.
That rate (and an even higher tally for non-discretionary goods of 8.4%) has also fed into higher inflation expectations, the survey found.
That spike to 6.6% was the highest since February 2011, Plank said.
The RBA governor, Philip Lowe, won’t be happy with that reading, you’d have to assume.
As it is, investors have lately been pulling back on their forecasts of how high the cash rate will go. Today’s move is only moderately favoured as another 50 basis point rise to 3.1% – as a 52% chance.
But further out, they no longer expect the cash rate to peak above 4%.
Most economists are also less hawkish, with a spread among the big four banks of 3.1% (CBA) to 3.85% (ANZ).
Key events
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No referral of Plagued book’s alleged national security committee leak: police
Paul Karp
Officials from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (PMC) revealed on Friday it had referred the possible leak of national security committee information to the authors of Plagued to the attorney general’s department to consider whether “relevant criminal provisions” had been breached.
Plagued, which was written by Simon Benson and Geoff Chambers and revealed how Scott Morrison appointed himself to multiple ministries in his government, also contains details of deliberations of Australia’s national security committee of cabinet.
A spokesperson for the Australian federal police told Guardian Australia:
As of Monday 31 October 2022, the AFP has not received any complaint or report relating to this.
On Friday the attorney general’s department said it was “aware of allegations” the book revealed details of cabinet deliberations and had provided advice to PMC “on the scope of offences that apply to the unauthorised disclosure of security classified information”.
A spokesperson said:
The department is not an investigative agency and has not referred the matter to any other agency.
So that seems like the end of the matter.
Caitlin Cassidy
Melbourne Cup draws animal rights criticism
It’s Melbourne Cup day in Victoria, but beyond fascinators and fashions on the field the “race that stops the nation” is drawing increased critique among animal rights groups and activists.
A petition launched by the Animal Justice Party in NSW demanding an end to horse racing in the state ahead of the Cup has drawn 30,000 signatures online, trending with the hashtag #NupToTheCup.
Melbourne Cup is one of the worst days of the year for domestic violence, alcohol-related ambulance call-outs and problem gambling. It’s also a pretty bad day for horses. Time for us to be the nation that stops the race. #NupToTheCup
— Jill Stark (@jillastark) October 31, 2022
Yesterday, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (and the Coalition for the Protection of Racehourses converged on Flemington to hold a “T-rex” race in opposition to the Cup, stumbling towards a banner reading “Finish the Cruel, Prehistoric Melbourne Cup Now”.
The Vic and Aus Govt spend $3 billion each year propping up horse racing.
A horse is killed every 2 days from catastrophic injuries. Australians recorded the largest amount of wealth stolen via gambling in the world.
Nup to the Cup.
— David Shoebridge (@DavidShoebridge) October 31, 2022
It comes as the latest Guardian Essential poll suggested almost half of those surveyed (45%) believe the race promotes “unhealthy” gambling behaviour, with a third (34%) saying it normalises animal cruelty.
Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi said the social license of the racing industry was “clearly fading”.
The majority of people actually agree that racing is cruel. You wouldn’t know that, though, from the massive marketing campaigns from the racing and gambling industries that are designed to make events like the Melbourne Cup appear universally loved.
The Melbourne Cup is the most lavish symbol of the gambling-fuelled animal cruelty of horse racing. It has to be challenged. Animal cruelty goes way beyond the Melbourne Cup – there are systemic and unfixable problems with racing.
Not safe to return to Bogong Village
Wiebusch’s final update is that it’s still not safe for residents of Bogong Village to return after a major landslip yesterday.
Finally, we have an emergency warning: not safe to return for the Bogong Village. It was evacuated in the last 24 to 48 hours as a result of a major landslip … and it is impacting on the High Plains Road. The Bogong High Plains Road remains closed between Mount Beauty and Falls Creek at this time.
Flood rescues ongoing in Victoria, with five in past day: SES
Wiebusch says there have been “five flood rescues in the last 24 hours, predominantly with people attempting to drive through floodwaters”.
Major transport route reopened for Kerang
Wiebusch:
In good news, at Kerang we have seen the Murray Valley Highway reopened to the south, which means one of the major transport routes is now accessible back in and out of Kerang. However to the north and west and east, roads remain closed as a result of flooding.
Swan Hill, Boundary Bend and Mildura brace for flooding
Other Murray River communities are still bracing for flooding this coming week. Wiebusch says:
The Murray River at Swan Hill is likely to reach a major flood level later this coming week at 4.6m, and the bureau is continuing to do modelling and monitor the gauges downstream of Echuca, for that flood peak, so at that stage 4.6 is the initial indication of it reaching major at Swan Hill.
We have had SES volunteers, the rapid relief team, all working with local government and other community groups in and around Swan Hill with a major sandbagging effort and also door knocking.
The key messages that the main town centre of Swan Hill is not at risk, it is those areas immediately in and around the Murray River that are at the risk of major flooding later this week.
Murray River at Boundary Bend is likely to reach a 8.8m by this weekend into the early part of next week.
Mildura at the Murray Weir is likely to reach a level of moderate flooding between the 10th and 12 November before it peaks at the end of November.
By the flows on the Murray River, we still have a period of time ahead of us were those communities will be at risk of moderate to major flooding in the coming days.
Echuca won’t drop below major flood levels until early next week: SES
Tim Wiebusch from Victorian SES has spoken about the northern Victorian town of Echuca which has been at major flood level since last week.
We are still likely to see major flooding at Echuca well through to this coming weekend. It is currently at 94.81m, and indications are we won’t see a drop below major until late on Sunday or into the early parts of next week does Echuca.
Recent rainfall causing major to moderate flooding in Victoria
Tim Wiebusch from Victorian SES has provided an update on how specific Victorian communities are faring:
In the last 24 hours we have seen the Tallangatta Creek reach major flood level and has now receded to the moderate flood level, just as an example of very little rainfall – some 40-50 millimetres of rain – taking the creek up to flood level.
Communities along the Murray River need to continue to remain alert to their conditions …
On the Upper Murray we are likely to see moderate flooding at Jingellic overnight tonight, and that will flow through to Albury, Wodonga and down to Yarrawonga and Tocumwal where we could see the upper end of moderate flooding as a result of further releases coming out of the Hume and Khancoban Dams, and that is all a result of rainfall in the last 24-48 hours.
Chamber of commerce endorses plan to split IR bill
Paul Karp
On Monday the workplace relations minister, Tony Burke, said he would be “deeply reluctant” to delay elements of Labor’s secure jobs, better pay bill in response to a suggestion from David Pocock that the bill could be split to deal with non-controversial elements this year.
The chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Andrew McKellar, has endorsed the idea. He told ABC News Breakfast:
Well, look, I think that’s a possibility. I mean, obviously, we want to have those discussions with the government. I’m meeting with the minister later today, so there’ll be a chance to put those ideas to him directly. Let’s see what the government says. But what we’ve got to do is I think is take the time on those other elements of the bill. We don’t want to end up with unintended consequences that really could be very harmful to many smaller and medium-sized businesses.
McKellar was also asked about the Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association’s threat of a mining tax-style campaign against the IR bill.
He said:
Well, certainly, there are very deep concerns across many sectors in our economy. And the resources sector, mining, and energy, those are very important sectors in our economy with very big projects. So of course, yes, they are deeply concerned about what they’re seeing. My concern is more for small and medium-sized businesses, family businesses and the like, where they can’t afford to get wrapped up in this sort of regulation and additional red tape that’s going to add to complexity and make it much harder for them to manage their businesses. That’s where my main concern is.
Resource employers campaign against Labor’s IR bill; Littleproud labels bill ‘pay back’ for union support
Paul Karp
Dipping out of that Victorian presser for the latest in national politics …
The Nationals leader, David Littleproud, has warned the Senate crossbench the government is trying to rush its industrial relations legislation because it wants to “pay back” unions for their support.
On Tuesday the Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association chief executive, Steve Knott, told the Australian there was “white-hot anger” among mining, oil, and gas companies about the bill and these employers had “significant capacity to fund a substantial campaign”.
Knott reportedly said:
From my discussions, I have no doubt that unless the government slows down their plans to rush their initial bill through parliament before year’s end and makes substantive changes, the broader employer community will be energised to run an anti-IR bill campaign that will dwarf the ACTU’s Your Rights at Work campaign …
They would absolutely dwarf the WorkChoices campaign and they have the financial capacity to do it. It would be like the mining tax campaign but on steroids. That campaign cost about $20m.
The industry has got a history of, when they’ve been poked, they will respond and there are enough corporate guerrillas in the mining, oil and gas sector who have come to me and said this is not on.
Knott called for the resources and energy sector to be carved out from proposed changes expanding multi-employer bargaining.
Asked about the possible campaign on Sky News, Littleproud defended adverse reactions to a bill he argued amounted to “payback to unions for helping Labor get into government”. He noted comments from CFMMEU secretary Christy Cain at the jobs and skills summit who “basically said ‘this is our time’”, and argued the union had been repaid with the proposed abolition of the Australian Building and Construction Commission.
Littleproud warned Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock – who will likely have the casting votes on the bill but have asked for more time to examine it – that the government is trying to sell them “a pup”. He said structural change “takes time, takes care” to avoid “perverse outcomes”.
‘This flood emergency is far from over’: Victorian SES
Wiebusch emphasises the flood emergency ‘is far from over’:
The flood risk still remains in many parts of our state, with flood watches for most parts of Victoria at this time.
We still have water storages that are at capacity, catchments that are now saturated, and we still have the climate drivers of La Niña and the negative Indian Ocean dipole which means we are likely to see above average rainfall for at least another 6-8 weeks.
In the last few days we have seen as a result of the rainfall renewed minor to moderate flooding in various parts of our state.
It will only take another large rainfall event for us to see our rivers in Victoria go back to major flood levels, and again, that’s why we are asking all Victorians to be flood ready now.
