Markey and Kennedy square off tonight for the first televised debate of the election cycle, an hour-long session that will be broadcast on public television and aired on radio stations across the state.
Because of the state’s Democratic leanings, whoever wins the Sept. 1 primary is likely to win the Senate seat in November, several political scientists and strategists said.
Kennedy, 39, is a fourth-generation politician with a famous political name that belonged to a president, senators, former congressmen and other politicians. He has served in the House since 2012 when former representative Barney Frank decided not to seek reelection.
Markey, 73, has been in the Senate since 2013 when longtime senator and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry stepped down to become secretary of state. Before that, Markey had served as a congressman for 37 years.
Kennedy’s challenge to the incumbent is rare, especially in light of their near mirror-image voting records and policies. The congressman has one advantage — greater name recognition than the sitting senator.
“Most people think this is a race and that [Kennedy] can win,” said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist.
Kennedy announced his candidacy in September, proclaiming “now is not the time for waiting.” He has made nearly 300 campaign stops across the state since entering the race and held 11 town halls in January alone.
He calls gun violence a national public health emergency, favors criminal justice reform and supports the Green New Deal, the manifesto that calls for cutting greenhouse-gas emissions to net zero over 10 years and guaranteeing jobs for all.
Markey and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) introduced the resolution calling for the Green New Deal last year, a point the senator is expected to highlight at the debate.
He also is likely to use his time to remind voters of his record on issues such as gun safety and funding for Alzheimer’s disease research, and that “he’s also been delivering for the people of Massachusetts even in the age of Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell,” his campaign manager John Walsh said, referencing the Senate majority leader.
Walsh said Markey developed a strong interest in Alzheimer’s research, for example, when his mother was fighting the disease, and his commitment to the environment comes from growing up near the heavily polluted Malden River.
Markey, who describes himself as a “lifelong public servant” and a “progressive,” emphasizes job creation, pathway to citizenship for immigrants, and protecting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Kennedy’s big challenge will be articulating why voters should support him for Senate when the state already has a Democratic senator with a similar record, Berry said.
Age is likely to be a big factor in the race, though exactly how remains unclear. Markey has drawn support from some younger voters, who appreciate his long-standing work to protect the climate, and Kennedy from older ones, who fondly remember when his grandfather was a New York senator and then attorney general, and his great-uncle was president.
“The legend is that no Kennedy has lost an election in Massachusetts in 130 years,” said John Cluverius, an assistant professor at the University of Massachusetts Lowell.
As the younger candidate, Kennedy also may have an advantage by being seen as the candidate of change. He already has strong support from the LGBTQ community, as well as 19 labor unions.
On fundraising, Kennedy has the edge, with $5.5 million cash on hand to Markey’s $4.6 million.
Despite the gap, it’s enough, Berry said, to give each man a fighting shot. Once a candidate reaches a minimum threshold, the difference in the amount raised is not usually a determining factor in the race. “The relationship between how much you spend and how many votes you get is not linear,” he said. “They’re both past the point of being viable.”
Kennedy has made campaign financing an issue in the race, accusing his opponent of failing to sign the same pledge he signed not to accept contributions from political action committees. This time, although Markey has pledged to reduce the influence of “undeclared dark money” and outside negative advertising, he is accepting some PAC money, Walsh said. Markey doesn’t want to silence the voices of liberal PACs that support women’s health, the environment and LGBTQ issues, he said.
Markey probably had no choice about accepting PAC money if he wanted to be competitive in the race, Berry said, because Kennedy is the better fundraiser.
“In fairness to Markey, he sees himself as outgunned and doesn’t want to fall on his own sword,” Berry said.
As with most elections, turnout will be crucial. But in this race, it will be complicated by the date of the primary election: Sept. 1, the week before Labor Day and the day many students in this college and university-heavy state will be moving into housing.
“Primaries are hard enough figuring out who’s going to go to the polls, and this one is even worse,” said Maurice Cunningham, an associate professor of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts Boston and co-founder of the MassPoliticsProfs blog.
That challenging date will reward whichever candidate runs the stronger ground game and can get voters to the polls at a time when there’s little else on the ballot and a lot going on in their lives, said Peter Ubertaccio, dean of the School of Arts & Sciences at Stonehill College in Easton, Mass.
But whoever wins, voters are likely to be happy, Cunningham said: “Democrats will feel comfortable and be well-served by either one.”
