A recent jump in Michigan Covid cases and hospitalizations is alarming public health officials and raising fear that it could be an early sign of things to come across the rest of the country.
Michigan recorded nearly 17,000 new cases last week, which represents a more than 300% increase from the same week last month. Its per-capita rate over the last week is the nation’s fourth highest, while its positivity rate recently hit 9% – the highest mark since mid-January.
The state’s numbers, especially hospitalizations, are a cautionary tale that underscores the need for a speedier vaccine rollout here and nationwide, said Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health.
“We could very well see an increase of cases in a number of states, and we already are seeing that in Michigan, but if you address the vaccine supply bottleneck then it won’t translate into a huge surge,” she said. “At the end of the day, whether there’s a real surge will depend on vaccinations.”
The state’s latest jump is attributable to the confluence of several developments, experts say: the proliferation of more contagious variants, reopening of schools, Covid fatigue and a loosening of Covid restrictions, among other issues.
Though mortalities remain low, increases in deaths have followed similar jumps in cases and hospitalizations during the state’s previous surges. Hospitalizations surged by 20% between Friday and Monday, which Nuzzo called a “worrisome detail”. Though the number of cases is still important, hospitalization figures are “key” as the vaccination effort races against time.
“Now I’m looking even more closely at hospitalizations and deaths because what we should see is that those continue to decline, even if cases go up,” Nuzzo said. “[Michigan’s hospitalization numbers] suggest that there are some vaccination gaps that need to be plugged.”
The state ranks in the nation’s bottom third in percentage of the population that’s fully vaccinated, but as of 22 March had the second-highest increase in new vaccinations over the last week, indicating that its rollout is accelerating.
The data on who is being vaccinated may offer some clues as to why hospitalizations are up despite the rollout. While about 25% of the state’s population has received a first dose, only 15% of Detroit residents have. The city’s residents on the whole suffer from a higher rate of underlying health issues that are often behind the more serious cases.
Read more of Tom Perkins’ report from Detroit here: Michigan Covid surge raises fears it’s an early sign of things to come across US
