Senior members of the group have already welcomed Johnson’s imminent deal as the “Christmas Eve agreement”, a reference to the 1998 Belfast Good Friday agreement that secured peace in Northern Ireland.
Indications from senior figures within the ERG suggest that many of its members will accept the compromises negotiated by Johnson and Lord Frost.
While some ERG members are unhappy about the concessions on fisheries, they have already broadly accepted the outline deal on the “level playing field” designed to ensure fair competition between the UK and EU, which was the most ideologically tricky part of the agreement.
The caucus will argue that the anticipated final agreement is a long way from the “classic dynamic alignment” originally sought by the EU, which would have tied the UK to Brussels’ rules, enforced by the European court of justice.
However, the ERG is reserving ultimate judgment until after it has seen the fine print and – in particular – until its legal experts have pored over a text rumoured to take up 2,000 pages.
