Boris Johnson is facing a significant challenge to his plan to replace the current lockdown in England with a stricter three-tiered system of Covid restrictions, with 70 Conservative MPs saying they would not back the new regime without first seeing a cost-benefit analysis.
In a letter to the prime minister illustrating the scale of unrest among Tory ranks, MPs from the newly formed Covid Recovery Group said the government must prove the new restrictions “will save more lives than they cost”.
On Monday, Johnson is expected to tell MPs what will replace the lockdown in England when it comes to an end on 2 December, including how families can mix with different households at Christmas.
As part of the “Covid winter plan”, more areas are expected to be placed into the highest tiers of measures in an attempt to keep the virus under control. Some tiers will be strengthened to safeguard the progress made during the lockdown, although No 10 has not yet detailed how these measures will change.
New national restrictions are due to come into effect in England on Thursday, after MPs vote on them, and remain in place at least until 2 December.
What can I leave home for?
- For childcare or education, where it is not provided online.
- To go to work unless it can be done from home.
- Outdoor exercise either with household members or with one person from another household.
- For all medical reasons and appointments.
- To escape injury or harm, such as domestic abuse.
- To provide care for vulnerable people or volunteer.
- To shop for food and essentials.
- To see people in your support bubble.
- Children will still be able to move between homes if their parents are separated.
Government say the list is not exhaustive, and other permitted reasons for leaving home may be set out later. People could face fines from police for leaving their home without a legally permitted excuse.
Can different households mix indoors?
No, not unless they are part of an “exclusive” support bubble, which allows a single-person household to meet and socialise with another household.
Parents are allowed to form a childcare bubble with another household for the purposes of informal childcare, where the child is 13 or under.
Can different households mix outdoors?
People are allowed to meet one person from another household socially and for exercise in outdoor public spaces, which does not include private gardens.
Can I attend funerals, weddings or religious services?
Up to 30 people will still be allowed to attend funerals, while stone settings and ash scatterings can continue with up to 15 guests.
Weddings and civil partnership ceremonies are not permitted except in “exceptional circumstances”. Places of worship must remain closed except for voluntary services, individual prayer and other exempt activities.
Can I travel in the UK or abroad for a holiday?
Most outbound international travel will be banned. There is no exemption for staying away from home for a holiday. This means people cannot travel internationally or within the UK, unless for work, education or other legally permitted exemptions.
Which businesses will close?
Everything except essential shops and education settings, which include nurseries, schools and universities, will close.
Entertainment venues will also have to close. Pubs, restaurants and indoor and outdoor leisure facilities will have to close their doors once more.
However, takeaway and delivery services will still be allowed, while construction and manufacturing will stay open.
Parents will still be able to access registered childcare and other childcare activities where reasonably necessary to enable parents to work. Some youth services may be able to continue, such as one-to-one youth work, but most youth clubs will need to close their doors.
Public services, such as jobcentres, courts, and civil registration offices will remain open.
There is no exemption for grassroots organised team sports. Elite sports will be allowed to continue behind closed doors as currently, including Premier League football matches.
It is understood the 10pm forced closing time on pubs and restaurants will be extended but that people will given an extra hour to finish the drinks and food they have already purchased.
Asked about this on BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said this was “definitely something that we’re looking at”. He said: “One of the things that we’ve been able to do as we’ve learned is get data, see what works and see where we can improve things.”
The cabinet is expected to discuss and finalise the plan on Sunday before Johnson announces it to parliament.
Ahead of this, the letter from the 70 MPs, also signed by 14 Conservative peers, told Johnson that a tiered system “infringes deeply upon people’s lives with huge health and economic costs”.
They wrote: “We cannot support this approach further unless the government demonstrates the restrictions proposed for after 2 December will have an impact on slowing the transmission of Covid, and will save more lives than they cost.
“To this end, government must publish a full cost-benefit analysis of the proposed restrictions on a regional basis so that MPs can assess responsibly the non-Covid health impact of restrictions, as well as the undoubted impact on livelihoods.”
The demand leaves Johnson with the uncomfortable prospect of having to rely on Labour votes when the plan is voted on by MPs next week.
Asked about the idea of a cost-benefit analysis, Rishi Sunak said this was unlikely. “It’s very hard to be precise in estimating the particular impact of a one-week restriction,” he told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday.
“What you will see next week when we have the spending review, alongside that will be a set of forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility … which will show the enormous strain and stress our economy is experiencing, the job losses that you mention, the forecasts of what will happen, and it’s right that we consider those in the round as we consider the best way to fight the virus.”
Ministers have already signalled that some restrictions are expected to remain in place during the festive period. The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) is set to publish research on Monday suggesting that measures in the previous tiered system were not strong enough.
Calum Semple, professor of child health and outbreak medicine at Liverpool University, told the Ridge show that there was some good news on the rate of infection and the number of cases coming down.
He said: “Nationally we are seeing cases in the community fall and in those areas that went into tier 3 before lockdown we are already seeing the tide turning with the number of hospital admissions and we will shortly see the deaths reduce as well.”
Reports have suggested that under the plan, several families may be allowed to join one “bubble” in order to see loved ones over the Christmas period between 22 and 28 December.
On Thursday, the government will set out which tier each area will be placed into, with MPs set to be given the vote to approve the new system in the days before it comes into force on 2 December.
It is optimistic that restrictions could be eased gradually in the run-up to spring if Covid vaccines are approved by regulators, allowing for the rollout to begin next month before a wider vaccination programme begins in the new year.
The plans emerged as the government announced a further 341 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Saturday, bringing the UK death tally to 54,626.
