It worked. He won the support of about 8 in 10 White evangelical voters in 2020 after this group of voters helped him win the White House in 2016.
Any possible GOP presidential candidate looking forward to 2024 has significant work to do if they want to snatch the evangelical vote away from Trump, who announced his candidacy Tuesday night. And by the looks of it, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former vice president Mike Pence have already gotten started.
Experts in politics and religion say while Pence represents more traditional conservative Christianity that could be a breath of fresh air to evangelical voters, DeSantis embodies the aggressive leadership they came to love in Trump.
And the governor has shown that he’s savvy with the culture-war issues that voters, especially religious ones, will likely be watching in 2024.
Let’s talk about Evangelicalism
The GOP needs the support of White evangelicals to win elections. The group makes up about 14 percent of the U.S. population and is the largest single religious group among Republican voters. Their interests have long shaped the party’s priorities, and that’s not likely to change in the near future.
The key to getting evangelicals to the polls is convincing them that there’s a threat to their identity and their place in the American narrative, said Andrea Hatcher, a political scientist who teaches at Sewanee: The University of the South.
As a candidate, Donald Trump did just that.
“I will tell you, Christianity is under tremendous siege,” Trump said in a January 2016 speech at a Christian college in Iowa. Then, a promise: He could fix it. “Christianity will have power,” he said. “If I’m there, you’re going to have plenty of power, you don’t need anybody else.”
And once he was in office, Trump delivered for evangelicals, including by nominating three conservative justices who were key to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, removing the constitutional protection for abortion.
Now, as the former president’s footing in the GOP seems less steady, other possible 2024 presidential candidates are trying to appeal to religious voters. And DeSantis, as we’ve seen, has been very successful at convincing people their place in society is in danger and he is ready to protect them.
DeSantis has secured his spot as Florida’s anti-woke warrior. After winning reelection last week by a landslide, he did not mince words in his victory speech:
“Florida is where woke goes to die,” the governor said.
Culture-war issues have become the bread and butter of the governor’s platform. He speaks the language fluently: Public health officials’ covid-19 guidance is an attack on personal freedom. Teaching children about critical race theory, gender and sexuality is “indoctrination.”
Hatcher said DeSantis offers evangelicals an alternative to Trump without sacrificing the muscular leadership that many came to admire in the former president.
The DeSantis approach “represents sort of the new direction for evangelicals going into ’24,” she said.
And DeSantis isn’t holding back in vying for their votes. Last week, he released an ad in which he seemed to be trying to show voters that God picked him for the governorship.
As black-and-white photos of the governor flip by, a narrator booms: “On the eighth day, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, ‘I need a protector.’ So God made a fighter,” he says. In the minute-and-a-half video, God is invoked 10 times.
Darren Dochuck, a history professor at the University of Norte Dame who has studied the rise of evangelical conservatism, said while the ad might seem a little over-the-top, it hits all of the right notes for a more hardcore evangelical who has a sense that the nation needs to be remade — Old-Testament style.
And DeSantis has cast a wide net, not limiting himself to evangelicals. The governor has tapped into a broad patriarchal Christianity, Florida State University religion professor Michael McVicar said, that’s “actually really bland. It’s not Catholic, it’s not Pentecostal. It’s not really anything.”
Pence’s traditional approach
Compared to DeSantis, Pence’s attempts to nudge Trump out of the anointed-by-God seat seem mild. But in his recent opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal, the former vice president ends on an apparent dig at Trump’s devoutness.
Pence describes an exchange between the two in the Oval Office after Trump was impeached the second time. Twice, Pence tells Trump he’s praying for him, and twice, Trump responds less than graciously.
“Don’t bother,” Pence recalls Trump saying. And after Pence says he’s never going to stop praying for Trump, the former president reportedly smiled and said “That’s right—don’t ever change.”
Pence has been a longtime favorite of evangelical leaders from his days in Congress to his time as governor of Indiana. Trump picked him as his running mate as a way of reassuring religious voters.
But Dochuck said that while evangelicals respect Pence for his authenticity and true belief in the Bible, he likely doesn’t have what it takes to take up the mantle of modern evangelical politics in the way DeSantis can.
“In this moment of culture warring against liberal elites, as they see it, I don’t think Pence is going to be able to put forward that image with the force that most evangelicals want,” Dochuck said.
Senate GOP moving forward with leadership vote after bid to delay fails
“Senate Republicans are moving ahead with a vote to pick a leader, after a motion to delay the decision failed Wednesday during a closed-door meeting,” John Wagner and Mariana Alfaro report.
“That clears the way for GOP senators to decide whether to retain Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) or replace him with Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who is challenging McConnell.”
Senate poised to advance same-sex marriage bill
“The Senate is poised Wednesday to take a first procedural vote on the Respect for Marriage Act, which would enshrine marriage equality into federal law,” Amy B Wang reports.
Poland and allies say no evidence blast was deliberate Russian attack
“Polish President Andrzej Duda said there was no indication that the missile that hit a Polish village near the border with Ukraine on Tuesday was an attack on his country, describing it as ‘most likely … an accident,’” Emily Rauhala, Rachel Pannett, Andrew Jeong, Jennifer Hassan and Ellen Francis report.
Lunchtime reads from The Post
Broadcast networks take a pass on Trump campaign announcement
“When Donald Trump announced on Tuesday night that he will mount another run for the White House — a rare case of a former president seeking his old job — the country’s three major broadcast networks opted not to carry his speech live,” Jeremy Barr reports.
- ABC, NBC and CBS stuck with previously scheduled entertainment programming. MSNBC did not air the speech.
- Fox News Channel aired most of it live.
- CNN carried the first 25 minutes before switching back to a panel discussion after Trump formally announced his 2024 candidacy.
Musk issues ultimatum to staff: Commit to ‘hardcore’ Twitter or take severance
“Employees were told they had to a sign a pledge to stay on with the company. ‘If you are sure that you want to be part of the new Twitter, please click yes on the link below,’ read the email to all staff, which linked to an online form,” Faiz Siddiqui and Jeremy B. Merrill report. “Anyone who did not sign the pledge by 5 p.m. Eastern time Thursday would receive three months of severance pay, the message said.”
“In the midnight email, which was obtained by The Washington Post, Musk said Twitter ‘will need to be extremely hardcore’ going forward. ‘This will mean working long hours at high intensity,’ he said. ‘Only exceptional performance will constitute a passing grade.’”
Support for abortion measures was greater than support for Democratic candidates in some states
“Ballot measures expanding abortion access and reproductive rights outperformed Democratic candidates in the three states they were put to voters in the 2022 midterms, while anti-abortion ballot measures lagged Republican politicians in two states, a 19th News analysis found,” the 19th’s Grace Panetta reports.
The three states: California, Michigan and Vermont
Trump’s drag on Republicans quantified: A five-point penalty
“[Trump’s] preferred candidates underperformed last week, helping Democrats hold the Senate and helping keep the race for House control close. (Republicans, who had been heavy favorites, are expected to prevail narrowly as mail ballots continue to be counted in California,)” the New York Times’s Nate Cohn reports.
“Overall, his preferred primary candidates underperformed other G.O.P. candidates by about five percentage points.”
White House’s hopes for a lame-duck debt ceiling deal are fading fast
“Senior administration officials see little chance of attracting any Republican votes for a bipartisan debt limit hike during the short session. And they don’t believe they have the 50 Democratic Senate votes needed to slam through a hike using the budget reconciliation process that would allow them to avoid a Republican filibuster,” Politico’s Ben White and Adam Cancryn report.
Biden-Xi talks mark shift in U.S.-China ties toward managing fierce competition
“In the end, the meeting largely accomplished what the two sides set out to achieve, restoring dialogue between the two major powers and a measure of stability to a relationship that had deteriorated to its lowest point since the 1970s,” the Wall Street Journal’s Andrew Restuccia, Ken Thomas, Chun Han Wong and Keith Zhai report.
“But it also marked a new phase in U.S.-China relations—one that is focused on managing the fierce competition between the two economic powers, preventing conflict and finding common ground when they can. It is a departure from past administrations, which have centered more heavily on striking economic deals, finding new business opportunities or expanding cooperation.”
White House seeks more than $47 billion in emergency covid, Ukraine aid
“The White House on Tuesday asked Congress to approve $47.7 billion in new emergency aid to combat the coronavirus and augment Ukraine’s defenses, hoping to overcome the staunch Republican resistance that has scuttled such requests in the past,” Tony Romm reports.
How you fit into the world’s 8 billion people, visualized
“The world’s population reached a record 8 billion people Tuesday, according to estimates from the United Nations, a staggering number,” Daniel Wolfe, Ruby Mellen, Leslie Shapiro and Hailey Haymond report.
“That’s 8 billion people of different ages, nationalities and cultures. But there are unifying characteristics that you share with many people you will never know. To help you discover how many on the planet have attributes like yours, we’ve created an interactive experience using demographic data that you can customize by age, country and gender.”
Manchin decides to torpedo permitting reform
“Angered by a pre-election presidential swipe at the coal industry, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) has taken a hostage. Revealingly, that hostage is a chief architect within the executive branch of energy permitting reforms, which is supposedly a top priority of Manchin’s. (He recently sponsored a reform package that Republicans blocked,)” David Dayen writes for the American Prospect.
“The situation calls into question whether Manchin cares all that much about bolstering domestic energy production, or if he is more myopically interested in getting particular fossil fuel projects in West Virginia approved and built, over local objections. At any rate, it’s hard to say he’s a sincere believer in improving transmission build-out, when he’s stalling its biggest champion in the government.”
Ivanka Trump says she loves her father but does ‘not plan to be involved in politics’
“I love my father very much. This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my young children and the private life we are creating as a family,” Ivanka Trump told Fox News Digital’s Brooke Singman. “I do not plan to be involved in politics.”
“Ivanka’s comments come after her father announced his third presidential campaign Tuesday night. Neither Ivanka nor Donald Trump Jr. attended their father’s announcement ceremony at Mar-a-Lago. Instead, Jared Kushner and Kimberly Guilfoyle attended to show their support.”
Biden left Indonesia for D.C. this morning. He will stop in Guam and Hawaii on the way and is expected to land at Andrews at 11:40 p.m.
AOC goes for the Swiftie vote
Daily reminder that Ticketmaster is a monopoly, it’s merger with LiveNation should never have been approved, and they need to be reigned in.
Break them up.
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) November 15, 2022
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.
