He’s been teasing a “big announcement” at his rallies for weeks and in his daily blizzard of fundraising emails (Monday night: “I’m determined to SAVE AMERICA and put the needs of the American People FIRST, but first, I need YOUR HELP.” Bold and capitals in the original.)
Trump, who filed for reelection in 2020 hours after taking office in January 2017, could always stop short. But if he goes ahead with the announcement, he’ll be wading into the chaos that has gripped the Republican party since the midterm elections.
Some of it is the natural result of a contest in which President Biden’s Democrats performed unusually well. They kept the Senate, and while Republicans are still favored to recapture the House, it’ll be by a far thinner margin than most observers had expected.
Some of it is, well, his doing.
- Trump is being blamed for the poor Republican performance in Senate races after he stumped for a number of candidates who fell short, like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, my colleagues Patrick Marley, Amy B Wang and Steven Zeitchik reported.
- No, really, while Trump declared before “I should not be blamed at all” if the GOP does badly, prominent elected Republicans are not heeding his admonition, according to my colleague Liz Goodwin. Not at all.
- The blowback includes some of his most reliable boosters in conservative media. Fox News. The New York Post. The Wall Street Journal.
- Meanwhile, Trump has attacked Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) who’s generally seen as his strongest rival for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, as well as Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.), looking to damage another potential contender. Both are rising stars in the Republican party.
The GOP’s Hill troubles
GOP leaders in Congress — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) — are facing mutinies. Republicans are supposed to vote on their leaders this week.
But prominent conservatives are pushing to delay Senate leadership elections until after the Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia between Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) and former NFL star Herschel Walker (R). They have the support of some prominent Republican senators: Ted Cruz of Texas, Lindsey O. Graham of South Carolina, Marco Rubio of Florida and Mike Lee of Utah. (The leadership elections are still scheduled to happen today and Wednesday).
On the House side, my colleagues Marianna Sotomayor, Jacqueline Alemany, Azi Paybarah, Liz Goodwin and Michael Scherer have documented challenges from the far-right of the party to McCarthy, who aims to be Speaker.
But to become second in line for the presidency, he’ll have to get 218 votes on the House floor come Jan. 3, 2023. There’s no obvious single alternative, but prospects of a narrow majority have emboldened the Trump backers who oppose him to seek serious concessions in return for their support.
It’s not just Democrats rooting for GOP chaos. One aide to a prominent Republican senator, when asked what he thought of Trump’s pending announcement, sent a link to a scene in the movie “Ghostbusters” in which two central characters discuss Judgment Day.
About those legal troubles …
As for Trump himself, the twice-impeached former president would become a candidate “while facing a slew of legal troubles, with criminal indictments and maybe a civil trial or two potentially threatening to interrupt any campaign,” Zijia Song noted for Bloomberg News.
“Trump faces possible criminal charges by the US Justice Department over classified documents found at his home at Mar-a-Lago in Florida; by the Justice Department regarding his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot; and by Atlanta’s district attorney over his attempts to change the 2020 Georgia election results,” Song detailed.
There’s also “a lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James that accuses him and three of his children of fraudulently manipulating the value of the company’s assets for years.”
Trump has seen his support soften somewhat among Republicans and Americans who lean Republican, even if a majority (60%) say they feel warmly toward him, according to a Pew Research Center survey released Monday. That number is down from 79% who said the same in April 2020, and 67% in July 2021.
Trump has shown before that he is happy to run against establishment Republicans and authorities investigating him. His rivals in 2016 heaped insults and scorn on him — then endorsed him.
And, as Michael Bender pointed out Monday in the New York Times, Trump still has his base.
“That unwavering support is the most significant reason Mr. Trump will enter a presidential contest as his party’s clear front-runner if he announces his bid, as expected, on Tuesday,” Michael wrote. “Although his dominance of Republican politics has led to three disappointing elections in a row for his party, a solid and devoted core of conservative voters appears ready to follow him wherever he leads again — even if into defeat.”
In G-20 talks, China objects to calling Russia invasion of Ukraine a ‘war’
“China joined Russia to oppose using ‘war’ to describe Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in a joint communique at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia, attempting to undercut an effort by the United States and allies to condemn the conflict in the strongest terms possible,” Christian Shepherd, Emily Rauhala and Rebecca Tan report.
Republicans nearing House majority, as vote tallies continue
“Republicans early Tuesday were on the cusp of winning back the House majority, after competitive races were settled in three states, pushing them to 215 seats, three shy of the number needed to clinch control,” Marianna Sotomayor reports.
McCarthy faces challenge for speaker from Rep. Biggs
“House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Calif.), who has sought the speakership for years, will be challenged by former House Freedom Caucus chairman Andy Biggs (Ariz.), as the staunchly conservative group tries to prove that McCarthy cannot garner the 218 floor votes necessary to become speaker on Jan. 3,” Marianna Sotomayor reports.
Walmart agrees to pay $3.1 billion to resolve opioid lawsuits
“Walmart has agreed to pay $3.1 billion to resolve opioid lawsuits brought on by more than a dozen state attorneys general, officials announced Tuesday. This comes after Walgreens and CVS agreed to pay a combined $10 billion in similar settlements earlier this month,” Jacob Bogage and Meryl Kornfield report.
Lunchtime reads from The Post
A Trump 2024 bid for president won’t stop Justice Dept. criminal probes
“Another Donald Trump presidential bid wouldn’t protect him from a criminal investigation, but it could complicate the decision-making process at the Justice Department, as senior officials strive to show that investigating a political figure is not the same thing as a political investigation,” Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein report.
“Privately, Justice Department officials have discussed the possibility of appointing a special counsel to take over investigations involving Trump — such as the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case or the attempts to prevent Joe Biden from ascending to the presidency after the 2020 election — if Trump formally declares himself a 2024 presidential candidate, people familiar with the matter said.”
Trump campaign operation takes shape ahead of expected 2024 announcement
“A trio of longtime Republican operatives will lead Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, which the former president is set to announce Tuesday evening in the ballroom of his private Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., according to five people familiar with the staffing decisions,” Ashley Parker, Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer report.
- Chris LaCivita, a longtime Republican strategist who is directing a super PAC tied to Trump
- Susie Wiles, a Florida-based political consultant who helped Trump win the state in his previous two presidential bids and has led his political operation for the past 18 months
- Brian Jack, who served as a senior political aide in the White House and has advised Trump and McCarthy since 2021
Walker’s campaign tells Republicans to stop ‘deceptive fundraising’ in Georgia runoff
“Republican politicians and associated committees are sending out desperate fundraising emails begging the GOP faithful to help save America by getting behind Herschel Walker in his Dec. 6 runoff against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia. But what’s not immediately clear to recipients is how little of that money is going to Walker’s campaign: just a dime for every dollar given by small donors,” NBC News’s Marc Caputo reports.
“Walker’s campaign, which has trailed Warnock’s in fundraising throughout the election, is asking fellow Republicans to stop their fundraising practices — or at least to start sharing more with the candidate.”
‘Too hyperbolic’? School board parental rights push falters
“Conservative groups that sought to get hundreds of ‘parents’ rights’ activists elected to local school boards largely fell short in last week’s midterm elections, notching notable wins in some Republican strongholds but failing to gain a groundswell of support among moderate voters,” the Associated Press’s Collin Binkley reports.
Biden aides consider extending student loan freeze after court defeats
“White House officials are weighing extending a pause on student debt payments after a federal appeals court blocked President Biden’s plan to cancel up to $20,000 in debt per borrower, according to two people with knowledge of the matter,” Jeff Stein reports.
Railroad unions struggle to get rebellious workers to ‘yes’ on contracts
“More than half of freight rail workers will vote on proposed contracts next week amid a highly organized effort by some of their colleagues to urge a ‘no’ vote. It’s the biggest test yet of the Biden administration’s push to avert an economically crippling rail strike after it helped a dozen unions broker a compromise with freight carriers in September,” Politico’s Eleanor Mueller reports.
U.S. to probe killing of Shireen Abu Akleh, spurring outrage in Israel
“The United States will launch an investigation into the killing of Shireen Abu Akleh, the veteran Palestinian American journalist for Al Jazeera who was killed while covering an Israeli military raid in the West Bank, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said in a statement Monday,” Shira Rubin and Erin Cunningham report.
Biden to Pelosi: ‘I hope you stick’
“As it became clear on Wednesday that Republicans would have, at best, a narrow majority, Biden told Pelosi he’d like her to remain in office, to serve with him in what could be the final two years of their decades in public life,” Politico’s Jonathan Martin reports.
How RSV, covid and the flu are affecting workers, visualized
“A new round of viral infections — flu, RSV, covid-19 and the common cold — is colliding with staffing shortages at schools and day cares to create unprecedented challenges for parents and teachers. More than 100,000 Americans missed work last month because of child-care problems, an all-time high that’s even greater than during the height of the pandemic, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,” Abha Bhattarai reports.
Schumer sets up Senate vote on same-sex marriage bill
“Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Monday filed the Respect for Marriage Act, setting up a first procedural vote for Wednesday on the bill that would enshrine marriage equality into federal law,” Amy B Wang and Liz Goodwin report.
Inside Kari Lake’s war room, where Republicans are grappling with defeat
“Kari Lake, projected Monday night to have been defeated in the Arizona governor’s race, was being advised by GOP operatives and some of her closest aides to take a measured approach and not ‘storm the castle,’ as one person present for the discussions described the sentiments,” Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Isaac Stanley-Becker report.
“Voters rejected election-denying candidates in key battleground states nationwide this year, and many of those candidates have responded by doing what Trump wouldn’t: concede defeat. It was unclear Monday night whether Lake would follow their lead.”
Biden is at the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. He has nothing on his public schedule this afternoon.
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